Re: virus: Human Papilloma Virus makes cervical cancer risk soar

From: Hermit (
Date: Mon Jul 29 2002 - 19:11:39 MDT

[Hermit 1] I don't think that the article claimed anything else. They claim that statistically significant correlation has been shown (and this is confirmatory - we have known about the linkage, although not the extremely high risk multiplier, for years). So causation is not asserted in the article.

[Nurgle 2] In my opinion, it hinted at cause and effect, but I may have misinterpretted it.

[Hermit 3] I think it is suggesting, in very careful terms, that the case is very much stronger that causation is involved. I would agree.

[Hermit 1] although I consider the low incidence of cervical cancer in people not infected by the HPV suggestive. Certainly, if a person has HPV I would advocate that they should be having pap smears every three months to monitor the situation. Particularly if they have other indicators

[Nurgle 2] I wouldn't. Something like cancer can have a negative impact on the way you live your life. Sure, you have a high chance of dying, but I would rather life my life without knowing how long I had to live.

[Nurgle 2] Besides, you could be hit by a bus tomorrow, so why worry about what's going to happen 10 years down the road? Carpe Diem, baby.

[Hermit 3]

Bad advice I think, unless you don't care about length or quality of life.

If spotted at the point where cell abnormalities are detected, radiation treatment followed by a caesarean will have little impact on lifestyle or expected life span. After a further 3 to 9 months the probability is that a cancer will have progressed to stage 3 or worse before detection, may have already metastazed and the prognosis is much worse. The standard treatment regime at that point (chemotherapy) is so unpleasant that more people leave such programs than complete them.

This is perhaps clearer when viewed as a table, but tables are problematic for email clients so I'll do it as a series of entries.

Adenocarcinoma of the cervix
[*]Stage 1
Protocol: Radiation, Surgery
5 year survival rate: 70-75%
[*]Stage 2
Protocol: Chemotherapy, Radiation, Surgery
5 year survival rate: 30-40%
[*]Stage 3
Protocol: Chemotherapy, Radiation, Surgery
5 year survival rate: 20-30%
[*]Stage 4
Protocol: Chemotherapy, Radiation, Surgery
Less than 15%

Somebody receiving 3 month pap-smears is almost guaranteed to have a cervical carcinoma detected early in Stage 1 and has a better than 90% chance of living beyond 5 years.

Modern medicine is very competent at detecting - and dealing with - early cancer. But it is easily defeated by clients who prefer to pretend that there is nothing wrong with them (it can't happen to me/I don't want to know about it). The prognoses above makes it clear how critical early detection is to a positive outcome.



This message was posted by Hermit to the Virus 2002 board on Church of Virus BBS.

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